Seminar on 28-05-2016 by Dr. P. Nammalvaar
Biodata of Dr. P. Nammalwar
Dr. P. Nammalwar, worked as Principal Scientist in the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Cochin (Indian Council Of Agricultural Research, ICAR, – Govt., Of India) for about 35 and half years. He worked as Principal Investigator / Project Le`ader in various research and Development Projects (R&D) of the Institute and External Government Funded projects during the period of service (1967-2003).
My specialized subject areas are Marine Biology, Marine Fisheries, Marine Aquaculture, Marine/Coastal Aquaculture, Marine Pollution, Marine Biodiversity conservation, Marine Mammals conservation, Global Warming & Climate change, Ocean Sciences & Technology, Satellite Remote Sensing applications in Marine Fisheries in Marine sciences & Marine fisheries and Science & Technology Communication including formulation research projects proposals for funding from External Govt., Organization. After superannuation, during June 2003, I have worked as Project Leader in the Sponsored research project of the Indian National Center for Ocean Information services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt., of India and in the nodal agency - Institute for Ocean Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Anna University, Chennai from 2006-2012 and executed the project (Applications of Satellite Remote Sensing Based Potential Fishing Zone Advisories for the benefit of fishing community along North Tamil Nadu Coast, India) I have also worked as Guest Faculty for M. Tech (Coastal Management – CM9154 – Coastal Aquaculture & Engineering) in the Institute for Ocean Management (Department of Civil Engineering), Anna University, Chennai, since inception of the course (2007-2012). At present (Since July 2013) I am working as Project Adviser/Guest Faculty in the Science & Technology Communication Division / Educational Multimedia Research Center, Department of Media Sciences, Faculty of Science & Humanities, Anna University, Chennai. I have published 130 research papers and 30 popular articles in the National and International scientific journals. I have participated in many research cruises of the Fishery Survey of India and Department of Ocean Development research ships (“FORV Sagar Sampada”) in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. I have been recognized as Supervisor and Guide by Madurai Kamaraj University and University of Madras and produced many Ph.D Students and Examiner for conducting the Ph.D Viva-Voce examinations (Marine Sciences & Technology) by various Indian Universities. I visited many countries and participated in various Extension programmes. National and International Conferences/Symposium, Workshops and Seminars conducted by various organizations.
I am a Life member/ Member in various Scientific/ Professional Societies. 1. Marine Biological Association of India, 2. Zoological Society of India, 3. Ocean Society of India, 4. Academy of Environmental Biology of India, 5. Society of Aquaculture Professionals, 6. World Aquaculture Society, 7. Society of Tropical Aquaculture Scientists, 8. Cetacean Society International, 9. The Fisheries Technocrats Forum, 10. Asian Fisheries Society, 11. Asian Bioethics Scoiety, 12. The Indian Science Congress Association, 13. Indian Meteorological Society.
I am a member in various social service organizations. 1. Lions Clubs International, 2. Bharat Vikas Parishad, 3. Book Club International, 4. Indian Officers Associations, and 5. World Constitution and Parliament Association.
I am very much involving in various social service activities. I have been honoured by various organizations for my life achievement in fields of fisheries, aquaculture, ocean sciences & technology and environmental management. I am also a Convener for the Tsunami Relief and Rehabilitation Coordination (TRRC) in the Centre for Education, Environment and Development Alternative (CEEDA), Chennai. I am residing at 121/46, 2nd Street, Kamaraj Avenue, Justice Ramasamy Road, Adyar, Chennai – 600020. (Res.: 044-24419414 & Mobile: 98843 26610).
E-mail: email@example.com / firstname.lastname@example.org
Awareness Programme on Global Warming and Climate Change
Dr. P. Nammalwar
Former Principal Scientist, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Govt. of India
Former Project Leader (INCOIS), Institute for Ocean Management, Anna University, Presently - Project Advisor / Guest Faculty, Educational Multimedia Research Centre, Department of Media Sciences, Anna University, Chennai- 600 025
Mobile: 9884326610 email: email@example.com
Global warming and climate change are among the most serious environmental problems facing the world community. Changing climate will affect people around the world. Rising the global temperature is expected to raise sea levels and change in precipitation and other local climate conditions. Recently concluded IPCC has projected some impacts due to climate change in different parts of the world.
The Presentation covers broad aspects like: causes of climate change, impacts of climate change on global environment, climate change in the industrial age, climate change and El Nino, climate change and volcanism, detection of climate change by means of satellite remote sensing, changes in coastal and marine conditions, impact of climate change on glaciers, impact on humans, climate protection options. Further, the paper deals with the climate changes impacts/effects on agriculture, water resources, forest, fisheries, food security, ecology and biodiversity, coastal wetlands, ocean ecosystem and socio-economics. The paper highlights the importance of participatory mechanism of individuals in the efforts to reduce climate change in fourteen different ways.
Facts to fret over include : By the end of this century, the Earth is predicted to be hotter than at any time in the past 150,000 years; by 2100, global temperatures are forecast to rise by up to 8 degrees Celsius – or even more – over land, with sea levels up to 88 cm higher; carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere may be higher than at any time in the last 20 million years; in the year 2010, 1 in 30 of the world’s population was affected by natural disasters; by 2025, 5 billion people will live in countries with inadequate water supplies; within 50 years all the world’s great reefs may have been wiped out by higher sea temperatures; the winter sports industry is unlikely to survive to 2100 in its current form; the probability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting in the next two hundred years in 1 in 20. If this happens, all the world’s coastal cities will be drowned, from New York to London to Sydney.
Key words : Global warming, Climate Change, impact of Climate Change, effects of Climate Change, ways to reduce climate change, Facts to fret over of climate change
The Indian Officers Association (IOA), Chennai with a long history of about 103 years, was started by the Gazetted Officers of State and Central Governments and Judges of the Indian Judiciary. This Association comprises the officers of the senior civil services (in the cadre of deputy collector and above) and Judiciary which have been setting a very high standard of public life.
As the members of the Indian Officers Association form the elite of the society, the association looks after the welfare of the society in general and the welfare of the common man in particular. The Association has been started with the objective of fulfilling certain basic needs of the members and render social service. The total number of Members of the Association as on date is 2123. The Awareness Programme on Global Warming and Climate Change was held on 28th May 2016, at The Indian Officers Association (69A, Thiru-vi-ka-High Road, Royapettah, Chennai -600 014). The awareness lecture was delivered by Prof. Dr. P. Nammalwar, Former Principal Scientist, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (ICAR – Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Government of India), presently working as Project Advisor/Guest Faculty, Anna University, Chennai – 600 025.
Dr. V. S. Rajalinga Rajah, Joint Secretary, The Indian Officers Association (IOA) welcomed the Members of the IOA and all the invited guests from various organizations. Shri. R. Paranjyothi, General Secretary, introduced the Invited speaker Prof. Dr. P. Nammalwar, to the participant members. While speaking to the audience, he quoted the prophetic words of Mahatma Gandhi – “The Earth provides enough to satisfy everyman’s needs but not everyman’s greed”.
The world in search of optimum solution for all global Challenges to feed the global population of 7 billion, to give them healthy environment and to provide the energy, water and food for real global challenges. The need of the hour is shift from Conventional energy resources, biodiversity conservation, and innovation in medical technology on level of agriculture, forest and other animal resources to meet the food requirement and ocean and water resources and other potential natural resources for people across the globe to sustain the development. The nature played an important role in the discourse of several philosophical scientific, and socio cultural discussions since antiquity. Nature has been a focal issue in topic, debates, concerns and interest related to human life and well being.
Difference between “Global Warming and “Climate Change”?
• “Global warming” is the term used to describe the current increase in the Earth's average temperature.
• “Climate change” refers not only to global changes in temperature but also to changes in wind, precipitation, the length of seasons as well as the strength and frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and floods.
Earth’s climate is determined by the balance between incoming sunlight and outgoing infrared radiation.
The gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons are generally known as greenhouse gases (GHG). These gases are extremely important because they absorb the reflecting infrared radiation and trapping heat near the earth’s surface much like a blanket. The blanketing is known as natural green house effect.
Over the last several years, humans have been artificially increasing the concentration of these gases, resulted in the increase of global temperature. This will certainly amplify the climate process. This phenomenon is referred to as global warming and the resulting climate change. Climate change does not take place overnight. It takes a large time for the climate to change. Changing climate will affect people around the world. Climate change will impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries like India as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development.
Coastal areas especially heavily populated mega delta regions, in eastern and western coasts of India will be at the greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega deltas, flooding from the rivers. Since the industrial revolution mankind has been burning fossil fuels for transport, domestic purposes and to produce electricity on a scale that has caused worldwide air and water pollution and produced green house gases, threatening all life on the planet - Earth.
Climate change may be due to natural processes or to anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use”.
CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Factors affecting climate can be categorized into two aspects:
Natural Causes (і. volcanic eruptions, іі. Ocean Currents, ііі. Earth Orbital Changes)
Human causes (Green House Effect, CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, CFCs)
I) Natural Causes: According to the French Scientist - Dr. Fredrick Angel, the universe is in the verge of a catastrophe. When man dejects the nature and lead a life opposing the nature, nature takes its toll on its own ways like natural calamities and unforeseen disasters. The one and only way out is to surrender to the nature and to respect and abide by the rules of nature.
і.) Volcanic eruptions: Mighty volcanic eruptions can severely interfere with the global climate and influence it for many years. This was illustrated very strikingly by the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia. 1815 went down in history as the year without a summer. In April 1815, mount Tambora erupted in the Dutch East Indies (later Indonesia), the largest volcanic eruption in more than a thousand years. The eruption itself took two weeks and ejected billions of tons of gas and debris into the atmosphere. In the short term, it ended up killing tens of thousands of people, but the consequent months were followed by a lowering of global temperature by upto 0.4 - 0.7oC. North America saw snow as early as month of July which led to widespread crop destruction. Famines were reported in England, Ireland, Germany and China. India too not spread with a delayed monsoon causing torrential rains that led to a major cholera epidemic. In fact, the strain of cholera that evolved in Bengal in 1815 would cause repeated epidemics. Snow in Chennai Temperatures in Chennai fell to freezing point in April 1816. There were even unconfirmed reports of snow.
ii.) Ocean Currents: The Oceans dictate terms in deciding the climate and weather as they cover around 72% of the global surface. Oceans currents move vast amounts of heat across the planet. The oceans play an important role in determining the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Changes in ocean circulation may affect the climate through the movement of CO2 into or out of the atmosphere.
iii.) Earth Orbital Changes: The earth is tilted at an angle of 23.5o to the perpendicular plane of its orbital path. Slow changes in the Earth’s orbit lead to small but climatically important changes in the strength of the seasons over tens of thousands of years. More tilt means warmer summers and colder winters, less tilt means cooler summers and milder winters.
El Nino and Climate Change: The El Nino phenomenon is the most powerful short-term natural climate fluctuation on timescales ranging from a few months to several years. Although El Nino originates in the tropics, it has an impact on the global climate.
II) Human Causes – Green House Effect (Most scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming is human expansion of the “greenhouse effect”- Warming that result when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, CFCs all contribute this effect.) The present atmospheric concentration of CO2 is about 383 ppm. Future CO2 levels are expected to rise due to ongoing burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 31% and 149% respectively above pre-industrial levels since 1750. These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 6,50,000 years. The IPCC special report on emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100. The rate of rise will depend on uncertain economical, sociological, technological, and natural developments, but may be ultimately limited by the availability of fossil fuels.
Further, Prof. Dr. P. Nammalwar explained the climate change effects on agriculture, forest, water, fisheries, food security, environment, natural disasters, conflicts and migration, human health, ecology and biodiversity, energy, global security, coastal wetlands, ocean ecosystems and socio – economics.
Effects on Agriculture: Climate change may have beneficial as well as detrimental consequences for agriculture. A warming climate and decreasing soil moisture can also result in increasing need for irrigation. Benefits to agriculture might be offset by an increased likelihood of heat waves, drought, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems.
Effects on Water Resources: A UN report has warned that as many as 3.4 billion people will be living in “water-scarce“ countries by 2025 and the Indian sub-continent may face the brunt of the crisis as India is at the centre of this conflict due to its unique geographical position in south Asia. Factoring scientific data and findings of various research institutions, the report says that Asia will be the biggest hotspot for burst ups over water extraction where water resources straddle national borders. Though the report has not specifically mentioned the possibility of country-wise conflict, it identified river basins in the region which may pit India against Pakistan, China and Bangladesh over the issue of water sharing by 2050.
India has just four percent of world’s water but has to cater to 16 percent of the global population. It has meant a steady decrease in per capita water availability. Today nearly 50 per cent of villages do not have access to safe drinking water. By 2020, India is expected to become a water-scarce nation. Even worse, 2030 Water Resources Group estimates that by 2030, demand for water in India will outstrip supply by as much as 50 percent.
Effects on Forest Ecosystems: Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests. Climate changes directly due to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate and indirectly through complex interactions in forest ecosystems. Climate also affects the frequency and severity of many forest disturbances. Climate changes in the functions of existing forests relating to productivity, nutrient cycling, water quality, ecosystem carbon storage, trace gas fluxes, and biodiversity. Climate changes in composition as forests regenerate under altered conditions. Fundamental changes in forest ecosystem structure can lead to very dramatic changes in functions.
Climate change effects on catastrophic events (e.g., fire, insect outbreaks, pathogens, storms) that have marked effects on ecosystem structure are particularly important to consider. Changes in the geographic range of different forest types and increases in the frequency of fire and insect outbreaks. Changes in the carbon storage function of forests (i.e., from sinks to sources). Evaluation of the importance of multiple stresses (ozone, nitrogen deposition, land-use change) that work in concert with climate change. Changes in human interactions with forests (e.g., risk to settlements, recreational use). Concern for the boreal forests of Canada because of their large extent, carbon reserves, and commercial value, combined with the fact that climate change is expected to be most severe at high latitudes.
The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient.
Effects on Ecology and Biodiversity: When the climate and weather change, a large number of plants and animals that depends directly on specific weather and climate patterns are immediately affected. Plants that need rain at a specific time to germinate will be wiped out. This is especially true for a large number of annuals and semi-perennials. Biodiversity provides all basic needs for our healthy survival Oxygen, food, medicine, fibre, fuel, energy, fertilizer, fodder and waste disposal etc. Considering that scientists have warned that the current rate of loss of biodiversity is the highest since the demise of Dinosaurs 65 million years ago during the Mesozoic era, when humans were not appeared, the urgency for saving nature from indiscriminate assaults by the greedy and ignorant humans cannot be over emphasized. Loss of biodiversity is a much greater threat to human survival than even climate change. Both could act, synergistically too, to escalate human extinction faster.
Effects on Marine Fisheries: The effects of climate change on marine fisheries are likely, therefore, to be more severe than on agriculture. One reason could be that the effects of global warming on fish stocks and their migrations are extremely difficult to predict. Most fish species have a fairly narrow range of optimum temperatures related to both their basic metabolism and the availability of food organism that have their own optimum temperature ranges.
Depending on the species, the area it occupies may expand, shrink, or be relocated with changes in ocean conditions. During short-term weather changes such as storms, fish may refuge from rough conditions through minor changes in distribution. Inter-annual changes in the ocean environment may result in changes in the distribution patterns of migratory fishes and affect reproduction and recruitment in other species. Moreover, decadal and longer-scale variations may favor one species or group over another.
These small pelagic, which were predominant along the southwest coast of India, have extended their northern boundary up to Gujarat (northwest coast) and West Bengal (northeast coast). The Indian mackerel is noticed to descend to depths to avoid higher sea surface temperatures. These are a few strategies adopted by fishes to migrate seawater warming.
Effects on Mangroves: Current mangroves will be lost or submerged and species lost forever unless they manage to colonize the newly submerged areas having a similar habitat and tidal conditions. Mangroves have sheltered many other plant and aquatic and semi-terrestrial life species. It must be remembered that all plant and animal species have a specific, sometimes overlapping, ecological function in their own habitat. Losing them would entail that some important function in the ecosystem will be stopped.
Effects on Coral Reefs: Almost 93% of reefs on the Great Barrier Reef have been hit by coral bleaching, according to a comprehensive survey revealing the full extent of the devastation caused by abnormally warm ocean temperatures sweeping the globe. Only 7% of the huge reef had escaped the whitening as reported by Scientists from James Cook University, Australia. Tiny plant called zooxanthellae feed animal polyps on the coral through photosynthesis. Interactions betweent the two generate corals’ brilliant colour. If high water temperatures persists for a week or more, the polyps reject their plant partners and the corals appears “bleached”. If the heat persists for too long, the coral will die.
Effects on Costal Wetlands: Climate Change Perspective Climate change related Sea Level Rise (SLR) increases the vulnerability of coastal wetlands ecosystems by posing threat to many coastal cities, urban centres and coastal population in developed as well as in developing countries. Coastal areas are predominantly rich in resources, easily accessible and facilitate infiltration of people and investments. The 8129 kms (including Islands) long coastline in India is characterized as fragile and highly productive.
Effects on Humans and Health: Climate change has a direct impact on humans. Extreme events like heat waves, windstorms, droughts and floods raise the mortality rate, while the living conditions for disease agents may improve, allowing diseases to spread into regions that were not affected before.
Coastal Vulnerability: Coastal areas in India are particularly vulnerable to pressures from urbanization, as 25% of its one billion people live along the coast and the migration to coastal areas occurs all the time. The following are the main drivers of change in coastal India: Urbanization, Industrial activity, Intensive aquaculture/agriculture, Tourism and Port activity. The main pressures for the ecosystems from urbanization arise from the growth of population whether due to migration or natural growth and the consequent increase in demand for water, land, sewerage and other infrastructure. The concern with coastal vulnerability is really a concern for the negative outcomes that may result from the combination of development pressures and stressed ecosystems. Stressed ecosystems will in turn, impinge on the socio-economic and health status of people residing or dependent on the coast India does not have a specific coastal focus for its development policies.
Impacts of climate change
Sea level rise: A study conducted by the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi and Ministry of Environment & Forest, GOI revealed that one metre sea level rise could displace 7.1 million people including all coastal fishing communities in India. According to United Nations recent report (2016): Nearly 40 million Indian will be at risk from rising sea levels by 2050, with people in Mumbai and Kolkata having the maximum exposure to coastal flooding. It said focusing on the population at risk from sea level rise by 2050, seven of the 10 most vulnerable countries worldwide are in the Asia Pacific region. India tops the chart with nearly 40 million people in the country projected to be at risk from rising sea levels, followed by more than 25 million in Bangladesh, over 20 million in China and nearly 15 million in the Philippines. It said that changes in settlement patterns, urbanization and socio-economic status in Asia have influenced observed trends in vulnerability and exposure to climate extremes. Of these the disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau threatens to shrink food supplies most sharply.
Many of the major cities of the world such as New York, London, Amsterdam, Singapore, Perth, etc. will gradually submerge in the sea. Add to this the impact of tides on estuaries, river mouths, backwaters, etc. all these places will now be submerged or be inundated by sea water. In India, Chennai, Chilka, Kolkata, Mumbai and a host of small towns along the coast will go under the sea, as the legendary 'Dwarka' has gone.
Glaciers melting (Loss of sea ice): The World Glacier Monitoring Service in Switzerland recently reported the 18th consecutive year of shrinking mountain glaciers around the world. Of these the disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau threatens to shrink food supplies most sharply.
Polar Region: Reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators.
Small islands: Vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, reduced water resources and habitat loss etc.
Major forest fires: Fires occur on a regular basis in many parts of India. Fires are frequent along the Himalayan foothills and also in the deciduous forests. The pine forests of the Himalayas are highly susceptible to fire.
It is also projected to lead in salinization and desertification of agricultural land especially in drier areas. Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Other negative impacts are increase in sea surface temperature, adverse effects on coral reefs and change in precipitation patterns. Decreasing snow pack in the western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions; increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities.
Floods: The other impact arises from the severity of climate and weather events namely strong and intense summers, high and intense rainfall events. High and intense rainfalls will obviously bring about high run-off and flooding of many flat lands. Imagine that large areas of fertile lands of Bihar, West Bengal ad Bangladesh have received 50 cm or 1 meter rainfall in one day (with in 24 hours) just as it happened in Bombay a few years back. Erratic monsoons and timing of rainfall, winter and dry summer events will be the other type of effects of global warming. This kind of rain is useless for cultivation of rice in Orissa and hill districts of various parts of India. Thus vast areas with low drainage will now be under the threat of floods every rainy season. Heavy rains do not necessarily mean higher crop yields. When there are more intense rains, there will be a higher run-off and less infiltration. Under such events even higher rainfall will create drought (agricultural droughts).
Droughts: A rainless period of 30 days is bad even for the most drought tolerant crop like ragi or jowar (in red soil). We may have to change to another set of drought tolerant crops in our diet. Drought conditions are crippling vast swaths of India’s farmland as the country faces its driest monsoon since 2009. With more than 60 percent of India’s agriculture reliant on monsoon rains, farmers are highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns and rising global temperatures, the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations found in a report. As damaging as the drought has been, though, scientists and environmental experts warn that it also brings into sharp focus India's long-term vulnerabilities to climate change.
Adaptation and Mitigation: Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is vital in order to reduce the impacts of climate change that are happening now and increase resilience to future impacts. Coastal planning should take into account the impact of climate change especially on sea level rise, higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, severe rainfall, cyclones and storm surges.
Mitigation - Life style changes can reduce GHC emissions. Changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns that emphasize resource conservation can contribute to developing a low- carbon economy that is both equitable and sustainable.
Satellite Remote Sensing applications in climate change: Satellite remote sensing has provided major advances in understanding the climate system and its changes, by quantifying processes and spatial-temporal states of the atmosphere, land and oceans.
World Conventions on Climate Change: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty produced at the united Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro, during June 1992. The objective of the treaty is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Since the UNFCCC entered into force, the parties have been meeting annually to assess progress in dealing with climate change to negotiate the Kyoto protocol. In 1997, the Kyoto protocol established legal binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. UNFCCC has adopted the BALI ACTION PLAN (2007) to launch a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome. Copenhagen Conference (COP 15) (2009) recognized that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2°C.
At COP 21 in Paris (2015), Parties to the UNFCCC reached a historic agreement to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C.
Projections for the future: Global–average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100. CO2 concentrations, temperature and sea level continue to rise, Global average precipitation will increase over 21st century. Glaciers, Snow cover, sea–ice, ice-caps extent is projected to decrease further. Global mean sea –level is projected to increase by 9 cm by 2100.
What we can do to slow down climate change: Although the problem is immense, we can all contribute as individuals and as a society to efforts that will reduce green house gas emissions and thereby the harmful effects of climate change. Share what we have learnt about climate change and tell others about it. Buy more efficient household appliances. Start afforestation and stop deforestation. Stop using products which releases CFC to stop global warming and ozone depletion. Use CNG instead of petrol and diesel. Use CNG instead of burning coal, wood and fossil fuels. Start cycling or walking to short distances.
Use carpool or common transport system. Recycle your organic waste. Choose products that come with little packaging and buy refills . Re-use paper! When the time comes to change your car battery, recycle your old one. Stop using plastic bags instead use cloth or paper bags. Encourage to use electricity generated from windmill and solar energy. Follow three ‘R’ principle-Reduce, Reuse, Recycle Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice and use of technologies can result in considerable reduction in CO2 emissions related to energy use in buildings. In industries, management tools that include staff training, reward systems, regular feedback, and documentation of existing practices can help overcome industrial organization barriers, reduce energy use and GHG emissions.
There are multiple mitigation options in the transport sector. Improved vehicle efficiency measures, leading to fuel savings, have net benefits. Biofuels might play an important role in addressing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Modal shifts from road to rail and inland waterway shipping as well as land-use, urban planning and non-motorized transport offer opportunities for GHG mitigation.
At individual level, many options are there which are simple and can save money. Switching off electrical appliances instead of leaving them on standby; buying energy efficient electrical equipment; buying fuel-efficient vehicles; using public transport wherever possible; and re-using and recycling of energy-intensive materials are some options. Thus there are two types of efficiencies: the device efficiency (conversion efficiency where you cannot get more work from a given quantity of fuel because the device cannot do better) and there is also an operating efficiency (how well we use these devices).
Both kinds of efficiency should be taken into account if we wish to ensure that we bequeath to our children a future better than what we inherited. Idling the engine for long periods of time wastes a great deal of fuel. This can easily be a avoided, especially at crossings and during a traffic jam by switching off the engine. Form car pools and encourage parents and friends to do the same.
Cycle or walk to the neighborhood market. Manage vehicular traffic better to reduce fuel consumption and hence pollution. France and Italy have 'No Car Days' and have limited city parking to alternate days for off-and even- licensed numbers. Making the walls hollow will firstly reduce the heat brought into the building. A small vent that allows the hot air at the top to go out goes a long way in making the room comfortable. Solar water heaters will of course greatly lower the energy consumption in the building. Many such options can be adopted for reducing energy use in our house without sacrificing comfort. Climate change scientists are expecting an average temperature increase of between 1.4oC – 5.8oC over the next 100 years. This will also wide spread impacts on climatic condition All over the world.
Facts to Fret Over: By the end of this century, the Earth is predicted to be hotter than at any time in the past 1,50,000 years. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere may be higher than at any time in the last 20 million years. By 2100, global temperatures are forecast to rise by up to 8˚C or even more over land, with sea levels up to 88 cms higher.
By 2025, 5 billion people will live in countries with inadequate water supplies. Within 50 years all the world’s great reefs may have been wiped out by higher sea temperatures. The probability of the West Antarctic ice sheet melting in the next two hundred years in 1 in 20. If this happens, all the world’s coastal cities will be drowned, from New York to London to Sydney.
The Future: Disasters will be more frequent and worse as the sea level rises due to global warming. The prospects are worsened due to human activities that are in utter disregard of the fragile ecosystems. Lack of political will and not of technology or money is the key impediment in fighting global warming. Climate change is related to sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. The industrialised countries need to accept their responsibilities and start implementing the solutions. Unless we take actions to reduce emissions now, far worse is yet to come condemning millions in the poorest parts of the world to loss of lives, livelihood and homes. This is the message for dissemination through various public awareness programmes to the community.